The San Diego Padres are quickly becoming baseball’s most fascinating team. They’ve got a closer who blasts heavy metal and ranks among the game’s elite, plus a former Silver Slugger who’s hitting the ball harder than anyone in the majors.
There’s just one problem with that second part.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is absolutely crushing baseballs this season, but he’s got zero home runs through 14 games. That’s right – the guy who’s tied for the hardest average contact in baseball hasn’t sent a single ball over the fence.
The numbers tell a wild story. According to Baseball Savant, Tatis has smoked 24 balls with exit velocities of 95+ mph, tied with Dodgers star Freddie Freeman for the most in baseball. But while Freeman’s got the home runs to show for it, Tatis is hitting .189 with nothing but loud outs.
It’s the kind of statistical anomaly that can’t last much longer.
When you’re barreling baseballs at this rate, the power numbers will eventually catch up. It’s not a matter of if, but when the floodgates open for Tatis. The exit velocity data suggests he’s seeing the ball well and making quality contact – those balls just aren’t finding gaps or clearing walls yet.
The Padres as a team have managed just 11 home runs so far, tied with Oakland for 20th in MLB. That’s not terrible for early season, but they’re clearly missing that Tatis pop in the middle of their lineup.
What makes this interesting is the timing. If Tatis keeps making this kind of contact and the home runs start falling in bunches – which they almost certainly will – he could make a serious late push for National League home run leader.
The season’s still young, but all the underlying metrics point to a potential breakout coming soon. Sometimes baseball’s just weird like that.
