The Philadelphia Phillies face a big decision this offseason with Kyle Schwarber hitting free agency after his MVP-caliber season. While the slugging DH seems like an obvious priority, some analysts are warning against a long-term commitment.
The case against bringing Schwarber back centers on risk and roster flexibility. TBOH’s Matt Grazel laid out the dilemma pretty clearly:
“The Phillies should not re-sign Schwarber to a multi-year contract. Not signing him will hurt the club offensively and the front office would need to have a plan to replace the home run hitter. However, what if they bring him back for multiple years and he begins to decline? Either decision brings a certain amount of risk. This roster needs substantial changes. While unpopular and risky, the decision not to re-sign Schwarber represents the best chance for Dombrowski to shake up the roster, which is necessary at this point.”
That’s where the front office math gets complicated.
Bryce Harper sees it differently. The Phillies star made his feelings clear when talking about what Schwarber means to the clubhouse.
“I was talking to somebody the other day, and I was like, ‘Man, it would be weird not to have [Schwarber] in our clubhouse,'” Harper told MLB.com. “He’s such a good leader. He’s such a good person in the community. Great family, great person. I think he’s a guy that obviously our team can build around.”
Harper also acknowledged the business reality: “Obviously, he’s going to make a lot of money [as a free agent]. He’s going to be a very hot commodity on the market.”
The Numbers Game
Speaking of money, MLB insider Jim Bowden recently provided some contract intel that puts the stakes in perspective. According to Foul Territory, Bowden’s hearing the market for Schwarber could reach five years, $150-170 million.
That’s serious money for a player who’ll be 32 next season.
The way I see it, this decision reflects the Phillies’ broader challenge. Their championship window is open right now, but it won’t stay that way forever. Schwarber’s been a huge part of their recent success, and there’s clearly mutual interest in making a reunion work.
But Dombrowski’s got to weigh that production against the risk of decline and the opportunity cost of tying up that much payroll. It’s the kind of call that could define their next few years – whether they’re doubling down on this core or starting to pivot toward the future.
All things considered, the market will likely determine where this goes. If other teams start throwing around that $150-170 million range, the Phillies will have to decide just how badly they want to keep their leadoff man in the fold.
