The season began with a dud for Paul Skenes, who didn’t even survive the first inning of an Opening Day start against the Mets, but most figured it wouldn’t take him long to round back into form.
For a while, that was correct. Skenes was lights-out in the weeks that followed, posting a 1.09 ERA over his next eight starts and seemingly cementing himself as the NL Cy Young favorite again.
Since then, the Skenes that Pirates fans have watched hasn’t been the same Skenes who entered 2026 with a career ERA under 2.00. The 24-year-old has a 5.18 ERA over his last 14 starts, including a 6.25 ERA in July, and a much-improved Pirates team is just 3-11 in those games he’s started.
So what’s wrong with the Pirates’ ace? Here’s what we know.
The Numbers Tell Two Stories
The last two months have been unquestionably the toughest of Skenes’ young major league career. Like every pitcher experiences at some point, bad luck is part of the equation.
Skenes’ 2.91 FIP (fielding independent pitching) compares favorably to his 3.90 ERA, and he actually has a higher strikeout rate than he did last season. His FIP is nearly a full two runs lower than his ERA over his last 14 starts.
That tells you some positive regression is coming his way.
That doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Skenes has experienced a major drop in velocity this season – he hasn’t thrown a pitch 98 MPH or faster in any of his last four starts and only five times in his last eight starts. For comparison, Skenes threw at least 10 pitches at 98 MPH or more in each of his first 52 MLB starts. It’s been 18 starts since he last did that in 2026.
The positive news is Skenes is still missing bats. His recent strikeout totals don’t jump off the page because he simply hasn’t been able to last as long in games, but his strikeout rate hovered near 12 per nine innings during a rough July. When he’s been hit, he’s been hit hard, however.
The Velocity Drop is Real
Skenes’ regression is certainly the product of some bad luck, but that doesn’t tell the full story.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner’s average fastball velocity ranked in the 99th percentile in 2024, 95th percentile in 2025 and 84th percentile in 2026, according to Statcast.
In 2025, Skenes recorded 31 strikeouts on pitches of at least 99 MPH. This season, that figure is just one: his only strikeout on a pitch of at least 99 MPH came against Pete Crow-Armstrong in May.
In some ways, that’s positive news. Skenes has still maintained a high strikeout rate without Earth-shattering velocity, something he probably knows he needs to get comfortable doing.
The velocity drop has seemingly allowed hitters to square him up a bit better when he misses, though. Skenes has allowed three more home runs than he did last season despite sitting on 63 fewer innings, and he’s allowed multiple home runs in three of his last nine starts after allowing two such games all of last season.
Some control issues have made things worse, as Skenes’ walk rate is 3.2 per nine over his last 12 starts after it sat at a minuscule 1.7 over his first 11 this season. That number isn’t typically anything to be alarmed by, but it’s uncharacteristic for Skenes.
| 2025 | Stat | 2026 |
| 32 | Starts | 23 |
| 187.2 | IP | 124.2 |
| 1.97 | ERA | 3.90 |
| 2.36 | FIP | 2.91 |
| 216 | K | 156 |
| 42 | BB | 32 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 10.4 | K/9 | 11.3 |
The numbers prove Skenes has been a bit unlucky, as his FIP still sits at 2.91, up moderately from 2.36 last season, and his strikeout rate is actually higher than it was in 2025.
Still, Skenes has been hit harder when he hasn’t missed bats, and a few more walks here and there have hurt him as well.
What Skenes Says
Skenes has insisted he is healthy and downplayed velocity concerns, saying much of the damage done against him hasn’t come against his fastball.
“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well. I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level.”
After his most recent start, Skenes said he still believed he was “throwing the ball pretty well” in July, with the exception of that outing.
“Up until today, I think I’ve viewed the past month or so as me throwing the ball pretty well even though it doesn’t look like it at all, really. The month as a whole I don’t think has been terrible. Today was pretty terrible.”
Skenes hasn’t necessarily offered an explanation for his velocity drop, but his assessment has many elements of truth in regard to still missing bats and dealing with some bad luck. Still, all eyes will continue to be on the radar gun as long as Skenes looks like a different pitcher than he was in his first two seasons.
The Workload Question
In an era dominated by innings limits and elbow injuries, Skenes has avoided notable injuries. The 24-year-old stayed healthy during his college career between Air Force and LSU, and he hasn’t undergone Tommy John Surgery at any point.
Since being drafted, Skenes has stayed on the mound through the minor leagues and majors. He made a full 32 starts last season and is on track for at least 30 starts this season as well.
That makes Skenes a bit of a unicorn in modern baseball, but it also has some fans wondering whether all of those innings at high velocity are catching up to him. Skenes insists that isn’t the case and believes he will get back on track.
The way I see it, Skenes is dealing with his first real adversity as a major leaguer. Whether it’s workload, mechanics, or just baseball being baseball, he’s shown enough in his first two seasons to earn the benefit of the doubt. But the velocity bears watching as the Pirates push for their first playoff berth in over a decade.
