The San Diego Padres should be serious contenders for the postseason and NL West this year, even with a roster that’s not exactly perfect. They’ve got a real shot at beating the Dodgers.
There’s plenty to like about this Padres team. The bullpen looks solid, and the lineup’s in a good spot. But there’s one glaring question mark heading into the season: the starting rotation.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle zeroed in on the Padres rotation as the main concern, specifically pointing to the 1.6 bWAR production from starters not named Nick Pivetta last season.
“Pivotal number: 1.6. With Joe Musgrave and Griffin Canning starting off on the IL, this figure represents the combined 2026 bWAR total of the four members of the Padres’ Opening Day rotation not named Nick Pivetta.”
Besides Pivetta, the Padres’ rotation will feature Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez, and Walker Buehler to start the season.
All these guys have shown upside at different points, but last year brought struggles and concerns for each.
King was solid for most of the year but only made 15 starts and posted 1.5 bWAR. Vasquez had a 3.85 ERA in 26 starts with 2.3 bWAR. Those were decent campaigns, but there’s definitely room for improvement.
The other two starters? That’s where things get dicey.
Marquez posted a 6.70 ERA with -1.1 bWAR in 26 starts. Buehler managed 0.0 bWAR across 24 starts between two teams, with 0.9 coming with one club and -0.8 with the other.
While there’s potential upside with all these arms – Buehler and Marquez are both former All-Stars – the rotation is clearly what’s holding this team back from being a real threat to the Dodgers in the NL West.
If the San Diego rotation can put together a solid year, and Musgrave and Canning can contribute once they’re they’re back from the IL, the Padres could be positioned for a deep postseason run.
But that’s far from guaranteed. Right now, there isn’t a single pitcher in this group without major question marks.
Pivetta, King, Vasquez, Marquez, Buehler, Canning, and Musgrave all have potential. They could also all struggle in 2026, and honestly, that wouldn’t surprise anyone. The Padres’ championship hopes might depend on how many of these questions get answered the right way.
