The San Diego Padres have been busy this offseason trying to fill the rotation void left by Dylan Cease’s departure. They’ve brought in Walker Buehler, J.P. Sears, and German Marquez, but let’s be honest – none of these guys match what Cease brought to the table.
The Padres still need that reliable arm to anchor their rotation. Christopher Kline at FanSided thinks he’s found their answer: former All-Star Lucas Giolito.
It’s been a wild ride for Giolito lately.
“Last season was a proper roller coaster for Lucas Giolito, who returned from Tommy John surgery, only to have his campaign cut short by a shoulder ailment. He’s seemingly healthy now, but the 31-year-old’s complicated track record has left his market a bit muddied. It’s unclear if teams are willing to offer up the three- or four-year deal Giolito probably believes he is worth.”
What makes this interesting for San Diego is the market dynamics. Giolito’s injury history has teams hesitant about long-term commitments, which could work in the Padres’ favor.
Kline sees it playing out perfectly for both sides: “All signs point toward Giolito signing a higher-AAV, short-term deal so he can test the market again next winter.”
From where I’m sitting, that makes total sense. Giolito gets to rebuild his value on a short deal, while the Padres get immediate help without the long-term risk.
Why the Padres Need This Move
The Padres’ rotation situation is more precarious than most realize. Yu Darvish and Matt Waldron are both dealing with injuries, and the farm system isn’t exactly overflowing with ready options.
As Kline puts it: “The Padres need quality rotation depth more than most contenders. Their farm system is barren… and it’s hard to trust JP Sears or Germán Márquez as legitimate week-in, week-out starters.”
That’s where Giolito comes in. Last season, he posted a 10-4 record with a 3.41 ERA, striking out 121 batters over 145 innings. His 1.290 WHIP shows he can still get guys out when healthy.
Those aren’t ace numbers, but they’re exactly what you want from a middle-of-the-rotation starter. More importantly, he’d bring more reliability than the current options.
The Money Makes Sense
Giolito’s projected market value sits around three years, $61 million. But given the injury concerns and market hesitation, he’ll likely settle for a shorter, higher-AAV deal.
That’s music to the Padres’ ears. They get a proven starter without the long-term commitment, and Giolito gets a chance to rebuild his stock for next winter’s free agent class.
The way I see it, this could be one of those rare win-win scenarios. The Padres shore up their rotation for a playoff push, while Giolito gets a platform to show he’s fully healthy and effective.
With spring training approaching fast, the Padres need to move quickly if they want to land Giolito. The longer they wait, the more likely another team swoops in with a better offer.
All things considered, this feels like exactly the type of calculated risk the Padres should be taking right now.
