The Orioles are struggling to start the 2024 season, sitting at 13-20 overall and already five games behind the Yankees in the AL East. It’s a disappointing beginning for a team many expected to contend after last year’s breakout.
But Baltimore’s challenges extend beyond this season’s slow start. The team faces looming financial decisions with their young stars that could reshape the franchise’s future.
The biggest question surrounds Gunnar Henderson, who might command a staggering $600 million when he hits free agency in 2029, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
“Henderson was the one player mentioned by every executive as the best bet to beat Soto. And even then, executives said, it’s a long shot,” Passan wrote. “Henderson debuted at 21 and will reach free agency after the 2028 season at 27. He plays a far more important position than Soto’s right field, and even if Henderson does eventually move to third base, the positional advantage still will be true.”
Passan added: “In his two full seasons, Henderson has already put up more than 15 WAR, including a nine-win showing last year that was better than any year Soto ever posted. Even then, Henderson needs more years of consistent quality before he can be looking at $600 million, let alone $765 million.”
The 23-year-old infielder is hitting .260 with a 113 OPS+ so far this season — solid numbers, but below his usual production. His career trajectory remains impressive, with 72 home runs in 369 games and a 139 OPS+.
Henderson isn’t the only financial consideration for Baltimore’s front office. Catcher Adley Rutschman and top prospect Jackson Holliday will also command significant contracts when their time comes. That’s where the Orioles’ organizational philosophy comes into question.
The team hasn’t shown a willingness to hand out massive contracts under current ownership. With three potential superstars needing to be paid within the next several years, Baltimore’s front office faces difficult decisions about which cornerstones they can afford to keep long-term.
What makes this situation particularly challenging is that the Orioles have built one of baseball’s most exciting young cores through years of rebuilding. Now that the talent has arrived, the question becomes whether they can keep it together.
