The Baltimore Orioles just locked up pitcher Shane Baz with a five-year, $68 million extension, but they’re still sitting on their hands with franchise cornerstone Gunnar Henderson. That’s the real contract conversation that matters.
Henderson has two arbitration years remaining before he hits free agency. When that time comes, he’s looking at a deal north of $400 million.
The clock’s ticking.
FanSided’s Christopher Kline thinks the O’s need to get ahead of this situation with a massive commitment. His prediction? A 14-year, $510 million extension that buys out Henderson’s arbitration years and keeps him in Baltimore through his entire prime.
“If the Orioles want to lock down Henderson for the remainder of his prime (and probably his entire career), it will require a bold investment on this scale. This comes out to roughly $36.4 million annually through Henderson’s age-40 campaign, assuming the contract begins in 2027. That sort of hardline commitment could coax even Scott Boras into an agreement, especially since Henderson isn’t coming off of his absolute best season.”
It’s a staggering number, but that’s where the market sits for elite talent. Look at the recent mega deals: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani. Teams are paying for those peak years from 25-35, even if it means overpaying on the back end.
Henderson’s résumé makes the case for him. In five big league seasons, he’s slashed .269/.346/.482 with 101 doubles, 86 home runs, and 260 RBI across 499 games. The hardware’s there too: Rookie of the Year, Silver Slugger, All-Star selection, and two top-ten MVP finishes.
He’s also just 25 years old. This isn’t a player you’re buying at his peak – you’re getting him as he enters it.
From Baltimore’s perspective, this is about more than just keeping a good player. Henderson represents the type of franchise cornerstone you build championship runs around. The Orioles have their competitive window open now, and locking up their best position player gives them stability for the next decade-plus.
The risk is obvious – you’re committing to paying a shortstop into his 40s. But that’s the cost of doing business with superstars in today’s market. Teams that hesitate often watch their best players walk away.
The Orioles have shown they’re willing to spend with the Baz extension. Now they need to prove they’re ready to make the type of franchise-altering commitment that keeps Henderson in black and orange for the long haul.
All things considered, it’s probably worth the investment.
