It’s the weekend, which means another back-to-back day of MLB action to sweat all day long. The player props menu is loaded with options, and we’ve got our wagers ready for Saturday’s slate.
Our top target comes from Tigers-Twins, where we’re looking to exploit Chris Paddack’s terrible form. The 29-year-old has been a goldmine to bet against the past two seasons, and 2025 is shaping up the same way.
Paddack has been lit up in consecutive starts, allowing 13 hits and 13 runs over just 7.1 innings. Three of those hits have left the park. When he’s not serving up homers, he’s issuing free passes at an alarming rate of 0.85 walks per inning — among the worst in MLB. Detroit’s patient approach at the plate will make him pay for putting runners on.
The Tigers come in with the seventh-highest scoring lineup in baseball. They’re top-five in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS, and top-six in hits. They put up seven runs in last night’s series opener and have historically crushed Paddack.
Detroit batters are slashing .350/.381/.600 lifetime against him, with Javier Baez and Gleyber Torres leading the charge. While over 1.5 walks and 5+ hits for Paddack are tempting, we’ll take over 2.5 runs at +100 as our preferred play.
Baez is our next target in the props market. The Tigers shortstop sits at +180 to record 2+ bases, which is a steal. He’s not only seeing Paddack well (career .500 hitter against him with a homer and two extra-base hits), but he’s also riding a five-game hitting streak.
Our final target today is Miles Mikolas to record under 3.5 strikeouts against the Phillies. The bet pays nearly even money and has hit in both of Mikolas’ starts this season.
The 36-year-old has been serving up batting practice to opposing hitters. He’s surrendered 13 hits and 11 runs in just 8 innings, while averaging only half a strikeout per inning. Mikolas has never posted a K/9 rate above 7.0 in his 10 MLB seasons. His swinging strike rate of 3.7% is one of the worst you’ll ever see.
Making matters better for our wager, Philadelphia rarely strikes out. Only three NL teams have fanned fewer times than the Phillies, and current Philadelphia batters have struck out just 16% of the time against Mikolas over 180 at-bats.
