We’re targeting a couple of player props that look solid on Monday’s nine-game slate, starting with the **Mariners-Twins** matchup where Seattle’s offense gets a prime opportunity to stay hot.
The Mariners are facing **Bailey Ober**, who’s been getting hammered lately. Ober’s posted an **8.31 ERA** over three starts this month, giving up 20 hits, 16 runs and seven homers in just 17 innings. Those aren’t small sample size flukes either.
What’s concerning is that Ober’s underlying numbers suggest this isn’t getting better anytime soon. His velocity is down across all three primary pitches, and his swinging strike rate has dropped to levels we haven’t seen since his rookie year. He’s allowing hard contact at a **40%+ rate** while his **17.8% strikeout rate** represents a career low.
That sets up perfectly for Seattle’s **J.P. Crawford**, who’s historically given Ober trouble with a **.364 average** in past matchups. Crawford’s been on fire this month – he’s slashing **.357/.464/.457** with 25 hits in 70 at-bats, riding the same wave as the rest of his teammates.
Crawford’s cleared over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in three of his last four games. Given Ober’s struggles and Crawford’s current form, that’s our first play.
Arraez Set Up for Success Against Familiar Foe
Our second target is **Luis Arraez** going over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI against Washington. Arraez brings a **9-game hitting streak** into this matchup, but what really catches the eye is his history against Nationals starter **Mitchell Parker**.
Arraez is **4-for-6** lifetime versus Parker with 2 RBI. Small sample, sure, but he’s been productive in those at-bats. He’s also cleared this prop line seven times in his last nine outings, so the recent track record is there.
Here’s what makes this even more appealing – Arraez is due for some positive regression. His **.275 BABIP** sits nearly 60 points below his career average. That’s not sustainable for a contact hitter of his caliber. When that normalizes, he’ll be reaching base even more frequently.
Parker isn’t doing Arraez any favors either. The left-hander’s allowed **21 hits and 12 runs** in four starts this month and carries an **ERA north of 6.00** since May began. When Parker has faced this Padres lineup, it hasn’t gone well – San Diego batters are slashing **.429/.455/.476** against him.
Parker’s road numbers tell a similar story, with a **5.93 ERA** away from home. Everything points to Arraez having another productive night in what should be a favorable matchup for San Diego’s offense.
