We’ve got one day game today, with the Mets and Orioles playing a doubleheader after last night’s rainout. That first pitch is at 12:05 p.m. ET, while everything else kicks off in the evening. Still gives us 11 games total and 20 teams on the field – plenty of matchups to dig into for MLB betting picks today.
Runs are coming tonight. Here’s where we’re finding value on July 10th.
Make sure you’re using those MLB betting bonuses on BetMGM and DraftKings to maximize these spots.
Washington’s Bats Come Alive in St. Louis
This one’s all about backing the Nationals offense and fading Miles Mikolas, who’s getting carved up by left-handed hitting lately. Washington’s lineup is basically a nightmare for pitchers who struggle against lefties – and that’s exactly what Mikolas is dealing with right now.
The Nats can throw six left-handed hitters at Mikolas tonight. Three of those guys are posting barrel rates above 10% over the last month against righties. Even Josh Bell, who doesn’t quite hit that 10% barrel rate threshold, isn’t going quietly – he’s got a 62.9% HardHit rate against RHP over the last 30 days.
Here’s the problem for Mikolas: he’s been awful against lefties recently. We’re talking about an 8.1% barrel rate, 65.9% HardHit rate, .500 ISO and .486 wOBA over the last month against left-handed hitters. Those numbers are pretty horrific across the board.
Washington dropped eight runs last night, and this setup looks even better for their offense tonight.
San Diego Should See Fireworks
Yeah, Petco Park favors pitchers, but that’s not stopping runs from being scored tonight. This one’s about fading both starting pitchers – and there’s plenty of reason to do exactly that.
The biggest edge comes from the Diamondbacks bats facing Randy Vasquez. Like Mikolas, Vasquez really struggles with left-handed hitting, and Arizona can throw even more lefties at him than Washington can – we’re looking at seven projected LHH in tonight’s lineup.
That group includes some serious thunder in Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Josh Naylor. Vasquez has allowed a 13.7% barrel rate to lefties this season, but lately he’s been getting hit up by righties too – 15.2% barrel rate against RHH over the last 30 days.
Arizona matched Washington with eight runs last night. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again.
On the flip side, Eduardo Rodriguez was supposed to be a prize free agent signing a couple years back, but he’s been pretty rough in a Diamondbacks uniform. His 5.78 ERA tells the story, while his 4.29 FIP suggests he might’ve been slightly unlucky – but that’s still well below average.
The Padres don’t consistently mash left-handed pitching, so this is more about fading Rodriguez than backing hot San Diego bats. Still, they should put up enough runs to help push this over the number.
Yankees Park Looking Live Tonight
The Yankees have been hitting overs lately, and there’s no reason to fade that trend tonight. This might be the best setup of the three games we’re looking at, with a +28% home run index in New York today when you factor in Yankee Stadium and the weather conditions.
The Yankees offense is fully back after that minor slump, posting the second-best wRC+ in July. Doesn’t matter if you’re throwing righties or lefties – they’re raking against everyone right now.
Bryan Woo gets the start for Seattle, and he joins our other fades in struggling more against left-handed hitters. The Yankees have some solid lefties to throw at him: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (who’s absolutely on fire), Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez. Not the same volume as the other two teams, but with how the Yankees are swinging the bat, they should get to Woo and his 9.1% barrel rate this season.
Seattle’s no pushover either. The Mariners are a top-six lineup in MLB since June 1st according to wRC+, and they’ve got a great matchup against Marcus Stroman.
Stroman missed a couple months with injury and hasn’t looked sharp since returning. His ERA looks decent on the surface, but dig deeper and you’ll find a 5.88 FIP, 4.62 xFIP and 4.66 SIERA. Add in a 12.1% barrel rate and low 11.9% strikeout rate, and you’re looking at a pitcher who’s just not in good form right now.
Runs should be flowing in the Bronx tonight.