A doubleheader between the Blue Jays and Orioles pushes Tuesday’s MLB slate to 16 games. We’ve broken down each matchup for today’s betting picks, which you can place using bonuses on DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365.
Yesterday went pretty well for us. Two of our three plays cashed, with both strikeout props backing those young flamethrowers hitting as expected. Here’s what we’re targeting for July 29th.
White Sox Keep Crushing Lefties
This might catch casual fans off guard, but the White Sox have been baseball’s best hitting team against left-handed pitching for about a month now.
Since July 1st, they lead MLB in every major offensive category versus southpaws: wRC+, wOBA, wRAA, ISO rate, OPS and slugging. They’ve been absolutely raking and show no signs of cooling off.
Just yesterday, they faced Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez and hung four runs on him. That’s significant because Sanchez hadn’t allowed multiple earned runs in a start since June 14th. He’d gone six straight outings allowing one run or fewer before running into Chicago’s buzzsaw.
That was also the first time since April 6th – his second start of the entire season – where he gave up four earned runs.
Now the White Sox get Jesus Luzardo, who can’t seem to find his way lately. Since June 17th, even if we remove his two absolute disasters (12 and 8 earned runs in back-to-back starts), Luzardo still carries a 5.35 ERA over seven starts. He’s allowed 10 earned runs combined in his last two outings.
Even if Chicago doesn’t get four off Luzardo, the Phillies bullpen has struggled all year and they’re more than capable of coughing up a couple runs themselves.
Brewers Stay Red-Hot at the Plate
While the White Sox might own lefties right now, the Brewers might just be baseball’s hottest team overall.
Yesterday they faced a solid Cubs squad and starter Matthew Boyd and absolutely tagged them for eight total earned runs. They got five off Boyd himself while recording an absurd 16 hard hits and launching three home runs as a team.
Since June 1st, Milwaukee owns the third-best batting wRC+ in MLB. Tonight’s matchup sets up perfectly for them to stay hot.
For starters, balls should fly in this ballpark. This game carries the second-best home run index of the day at +36% when factoring in weather and park conditions.
The Cubs are sending out Colin Rea, who’s really struggled recently. Over his last nine starts, he’s posted a 4.72 ERA, 6.05 FIP and 4.86 SIERA. In that stretch, he’s allowed a barrel rate of 10.8% and launch angle of 16.4 degrees, contributing to his HR/9 of 2.28.
Against a scorching Brewers lineup in these conditions, those home run tendencies could be a death sentence. Milwaukee should put up runs in bunches again tonight.
Kikuchi Gets Rangers Swinging
Despite missing this mark in both starts against Texas this year, Kikuchi is worth a sprinkle to reach 7+ strikeouts at the appealing +135 price.
After a rough start to the season, Kikuchi has found his groove recently. He’s hit the over in five of his last eight games, quite the turnaround after missing it in 13 of his first 14 starts.
Over his last 10 outings, he’s carrying a solid 28.4% strikeout rate and 10.71 K/9. If you extrapolate those numbers out, that would put him in the top 10 among all qualified pitchers. He’s also been consistently hitting 90+ pitches and reached 100+ four times in that span.
The matchup couldn’t be better. This Rangers team not only strikes out frequently against lefties but struggles to make contact period.
Since July 1st, Texas owns the sixth-worst wRC+ and second-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. That’s a brutal combination for them, but perfect for us.
Looking at individual matchups, the Rangers project to start eight of nine batters who strike out over 20% against lefties. Six of those guys are striking out at 23% or higher rates.
Kikuchi should be able to punch out plenty of Rangers tonight.
