The Miami Marlins are already planning their summer fire sale. At 23-37 and sitting in the basement of the NL East, they’re 15 games out of first place with nowhere to go but the trade market.
Sandy Alcantara was supposed to be their crown jewel this deadline. The 29-year-old right-hander seemed like an obvious candidate to bring back a significant return for a rebuilding club.
But there’s a problem brewing.
Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery hasn’t gone according to plan. He’s 2-7 with a 7.89 ERA across 12 starts, and those numbers are starting to affect his trade value in ways that could reshape Miami’s entire deadline strategy.
Chad Jennings of The Athletic put it perfectly when he noted that Alcantara could shape this summer’s trade deadline – just maybe not in the way the Marlins hoped.
“The question isn’t whether the Marlins will play their way out of sell mode in the next month. It’s whether Alcantara will pitch his way back to elite trade chip status.”
That’s the million-dollar question. If Alcantara was still throwing like the guy who won the 2022 Cy Young Award, Miami would have teams lining up with prospect packages. His contract situation alone makes him attractive – two years of club control plus a club option for 2027.
But Tommy John recoveries can be unpredictable, and Alcantara’s certainly not setting the world on fire right now. Teams that might’ve been willing to empty their farm systems for peak Alcantara are probably taking a wait-and-see approach.
What makes this tricky for Miami is timing. They need to maximize their return while they can, but pushing a struggling pitcher who’s coming off major surgery could backfire entirely. Some teams might end up trying to buy low on the veteran right-hander, banking on his talent eventually returning.
There’s also the possibility he doesn’t get moved at all.
The way I see it, the next month is crucial for both Alcantara and the Marlins’ rebuilding timeline. A few strong starts could restore confidence and bring back those premium offers. But if the struggles continue, Miami might have to get creative with their approach to the deadline.
All things considered, it’s a fascinating test case for how teams value talent versus recent performance when major surgery is involved.