The Cubs slapped the $22.025 million qualifying offer on Kyle Tucker this week, and that’s going to cost his next team more than just the massive contract he’s expected to sign.
Tucker’s heading into free agency with projections in the $400 to $500 million range. The left-handed power’s legit, and that type of bat ages well. But here’s the thing – whoever wins the Tucker sweepstakes isn’t just paying in dollars.
They’re also paying in draft picks and international bonus money.
The Price Gets Steep Fast
The penalties scale based on what tier your payroll puts you in. Competitive Balance Tax payors – that’s the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies – forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks plus $1 million from their international pool.
Sign multiple qualified free agents? Tack on your third and sixth highest picks too.
That’s a steep price for even the big spenders.
Teams in the middle tier – the non-revenue-sharing clubs that didn’t pay luxury tax like the Giants, Cardinals, Braves, and Angels – would lose their second-highest pick and $500,000 of international money. Manageable, but it still stings.
The lightest penalties hit revenue-sharing recipients like the Orioles, Mariners, Guardians, and Tigers. They only give up their third-highest pick.
That matters more than you might think.
Where the Real Advantage Lies
If Tucker’s market turns into a years-versus-AAV battle, those revenue-sharing teams can lean on their softer draft penalty. They can sweeten the guarantee without the same pick trauma that luxury-tax teams face.
The Cubs aren’t crying about it, though. If Tucker walks, Chicago pockets a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in 2026. It’s not franchise-changing, but it’s real capital flowing back into their system.
The qualifying offer also subtly tightens Tucker’s market. Fewer teams are willing to pay what’s essentially a double tax.
So Who’s Really In?
The CBT monsters like the Dodgers and Mets can still muscle up, but they’ll decide whether losing two picks plus $1 million is worth it before the bidding gets serious. Revenue-sharing clubs like the Orioles or Mariners have a structural edge if they’re willing to go long-term.
And that middle tier? They can play spoiler if they decide a second-rounder’s a fair toll for a prime-age lefty bat who can hit in the top of the order.
The qualifying offer won’t weigh Tucker down like it does lesser talents, but it’s still an annoyance. His next team pays once in dollars and once in picks.
The only question now is which front office is comfortable signing both checks – the massive contract and tearing up the draft card that comes with it.
