John Smoltz thinks the Atlanta Braves can stay ahead of the Dodgers this season. There’s just one catch.
“Simply staying healthy,” the Hall of Fame pitcher told me recently. “Their roster’s very good. It’s good enough to win a championship. They have to stay healthy.”
Smoltz spent two decades with Atlanta and knows what it takes to win in October. He’s confident this Braves team can keep pace with the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers – if the injury bug doesn’t bite again.
“That’s going to be basically the difference between this year and last year,” Smoltz explained. “Everything that could’ve gone wrong did last year. Everybody that could’ve gotten hurt did. And right now they’re living off the privilege of being healthy.”
We discussed several MLB topics during our conversation, which was in support of NBC’s 2026 American Century Championship. The tournament takes place July 8-12 at Edgewood Tahoe Resort in Stateline, Nevada.
Smoltz is one of over 90 celebrities in the field and considered a favorite to win it all. He’s also near the final stage of qualifying for the U.S. Senior Open, which happens a week before the ACC. He last qualified for the U.S. Senior Open in 2018.
Analytics Are Out of Balance
Our conversation quickly turned to how analytics have changed baseball. Smoltz didn’t hold back.
“A lot of smart people have gotten themselves in a position where they have all the answers, and they don’t ask any questions,” he said. “Maybe it’s become a little bit arrogant in the attitude of ‘we’ve got all the answers.'”
“Analytics in and of itself has value, but it’s out of balance right now. It’s literally ruining a position in our sport, pitchers, and they’re doing nothing about it.”
The former Cy Young winner sees a fundamental problem with how teams approach pitcher development and usage.
“They know they can’t, so they don’t deal with it. They don’t talk about it. They just want the next guy up,” Smoltz explained. “Whenever you’re trying to manage a system or a league based on what’s on paper, and you’ve never played the game, you don’t understand how it correlates.”
That’s created what he calls “basically, a shuffling of the deck of players.” Teams know pitchers will get hurt, but the current system pushes players toward unsustainable approaches.
“Most of the directors that are filing misinformation and handing it down are now making major decisions on behalf of players’ careers,” he added.
How Today’s Game Would’ve Changed His Career
I asked Smoltz how he would’ve handled playing in today’s analytical environment, particularly how teams like the Miami Marlins use data for nearly every pitch.
His answer was telling.
“No player today, no young player, has control over their career, unless they’re given a nine-year contract,” he said. “You’re basically subjected to the information that drives your career. You don’t get to do what you think is right.”
Smoltz believes his Hall of Fame career might never have happened under today’s system.
“They would ask me to throw 99 to 100 (miles per hour), which I could, and then I’d break down several times, and you would never know my name,” he explained. “I’m glad I played when I did; I controlled my own career.”
The difference? A completely different reward system that allowed players more input into their development.
Banana Ball and Future Labor Issues
With potential labor issues looming in 2027, I wondered if Banana Ball could provide an alternative for MLB players during a lockout.
“That’s an interesting question,” Smoltz said. “I think they’re a unique and special group that has proven what you can do with an entertainment-centric baseball product.”
The Savannah Bananas have transformed from what “used to be kind of a little goofy” into sold-out shows everywhere they go.
“They’ve done a great job marketing, and no matter what happens with Major League Baseball, they’re still going to flourish,” he added.
NIL Creates Another Imbalance
Smoltz also weighed in on how NIL would’ve affected his decision to go pro instead of attending Michigan State.
“This is a situation where, like everything else, when you go beyond what’s normal, you create a Pandora’s box; now it’s out of control,” he said. “There is no balance again with NIL.”
It’s another reward system that’s gone “over the top,” according to Smoltz. “Somewhere in the middle is where there needs to be a sweet spot.”
Golf Dreams and Back-to-Back Tournaments
As for being a favorite in the 2026 American Century Championship, Smoltz keeps it simple: “It’s a matter of being able to find a way to make putts to get it done because I’m not getting any younger.”
He’ll face tough competition from Mardy Fish, Joe Pavelski, and Steph Curry, among others.
“I’m going to have to be really, really good to beat any of those guys,” he admitted.
The dream scenario? Qualifying for the U.S. Senior Open and playing back-to-back tournaments in Columbus, Ohio, and Stateline, Nevada.
“That’d be a dream scenario for me,” Smoltz said. “My goal in golf is to see what competitive levels I can get to.”
At this stage of life – with two new hips and several procedures behind him – Smoltz figures he’s got “about five to six years left in real high-level competitive golf.”
He’s determined to take it as high as he can. And he credits his wife for making it all possible.
“Without her, there’s no chance,” he said. “She gives me the opportunity to play golf and pursue passions that are well beyond what my sport already created.”
Whether it’s analyzing baseball’s future or chasing golf dreams, Smoltz isn’t slowing down anytime soon.
