Jack Flaherty finds himself at a crossroads heading into the final stretch of 2025. The Tigers right-hander holds an opt-out clause after this season, and how he finishes the year will likely determine whether he stays in Detroit or tests free agency.
It’s a situation worth watching closely. Flaherty’s sitting on a two-year, $35 million deal with the Tigers, but his 2025 performance has been rough around the edges.
The numbers tell the story. Flaherty’s posted a 7-13 record with a 4.87 ERA through 26 starts this season. His ERA+ sits at 85, meaning he’s been about 15 percent worse than league average. That’s a far cry from his 2024 form, when he carried a 2.95 ERA and 141 ERA+ through 18 starts with Detroit before getting dealt to the Dodgers.
Here’s where it gets interesting from a contract perspective.
After reaching 15 starts this season, Flaherty triggered an escalator that bumped his 2026 salary from $10 million to $20 million. So he’s got $20 million waiting for him if he sticks around Detroit next year.
But that’s also where the opt-out decision becomes fascinating. As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand points out, “the way he finishes the year will influence his contractual decision.”
“Flaherty is 7-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 26 starts this season, so the way he finishes the year will influence his contractual decision.”
The math seems pretty straightforward from where I’m sitting. If Flaherty continues struggling, he’d be hard-pressed to find a team willing to match that $20 million in free agency coming off a down year. Quality starting pitching might be expensive, but teams aren’t throwing big money at pitchers with ERAs approaching 5.00.
That’s what makes September so crucial.
If Flaherty can string together some strong outings and maybe carry that into October, suddenly the opt-out becomes more appealing. He’d be banking on teams remembering his second-half surge and World Series contributions with the Dodgers rather than his overall 2025 struggles.
The Tigers have their own considerations here too. They’re sitting pretty as one of baseball’s top teams this season, largely thanks to Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-caliber performance. But beyond Skubal, the rotation has been inconsistent.
Detroit would probably prefer Flaherty stick around for 2026, especially given how he looked during his first stint with the organization. Last season’s 18-start sample showed he could be effective in their system before the deadline trade to Los Angeles.
All things considered, the most likely scenario has Flaherty staying put. The guaranteed $20 million is hard to walk away from, particularly after a season that hasn’t showcased his best stuff. He hasn’t posted an ERA+ below 100 since his rookie year in 2017, so there’s reason to believe he could bounce back.
But baseball’s funny that way. A strong finish could change everything, and Flaherty knows it. The next month will tell us whether he’s content with his guaranteed payday or ready to bet on himself in free agency.
