Thursday’s MLB slate brings nine games, which is typical for a travel day. We’ve got some good weather spots – Coors Field leading the charge – and plenty of solid matchups to work with for home run picks.
Jo Adell came through for us yesterday, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with our best MLB home run predictions for June 26th.
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks. Collect a guaranteed $150 bonus on each sportsbook app.
- Teoscar Hernandez (+250) at FanDuel
- Francisco Lindor (+450) at bet365
- Jordan Beck (+500) at FanDuel
Teoscar Hernandez (+250)
The price sits at +250 for good reason. This play on Hernandez checks all three boxes you want in a home run prediction: the venue, a hot batter, and a favorable pitching matchup.
We all know Coors helps the ball carry due to high altitude, but today’s forecast shows temperatures in the 90s. That’ll give the ball even more carry than usual.
Hernandez might be swinging the hottest bat on the Dodgers right now. He leads the team in total hard hits over the last seven games (11) and last 14 days (18). Yesterday he crushed the baseball with three hard hits, all above 100+ mph exit velocity.
Hot batter? Check.
The pitching matchup looks even better. Austin Gomber takes the mound for Colorado, and he’s definitely a home run thrower. It’s a small sample with only two starts this year, but he’s already allowed three homers to right-handed hitters – that’s a 3.68 HR/9 rate. He’s also a lefty, and Hernandez crushes left-handed pitching with a .392 ISO against LHP, compared to just .189 against RHP.
Pitching matchup? Check.
Francisco Lindor (+450)
This play on Lindor might not check every box, but it’s still strong, and we’re getting much better odds compared to Hernandez. The venue isn’t as homer-friendly as Coors, but everything else looks great for Lindor.
Just like Hernandez, Lindor had a great day at the plate yesterday for the Mets with three hard hits. All three came off the bat above 100+ mph exit velocity, including a flyout that was 102.9 mph and traveled 414 feet. That ball would’ve been a home run in 22 of 30 stadiums.
Brutal for anyone who had Lindor yesterday, but it shows a batter who’s seeing the ball well.
Grant Holmes is pitching for the Braves, and he’s struggled with the long ball this year. His HR/9 sits at a subpar 1.48, while allowing a 12.2% barrel rate and 43.7% hard-hit rate. That’s the fourth-worst barrel rate in MLB and 19th-worst hard-hit rate.
After having bad luck in the home run department last night, let’s hope Lindor corrects that tonight.
Jordan Beck (+500)
We’re heading back to Denver and rolling with a Rockies player in Jordan Beck. He benefits from the same hitting conditions as Hernandez, plus he’s got a good pitching matchup to work with.
Beck isn’t quite as hot at the plate as Hernandez, but he’s hitting decently with eight hard hits in his last seven games and 14 hard hits with four barrels over the last two weeks. Not incredible numbers, but not horrible either.
The biggest thing working in Beck’s favor – which matches Hernandez – is that he’s facing a left-handed pitcher. Beck has been phenomenal against lefties this year with a .273 ISO and 18.2% barrel rate against LHP. Over the last 30 days, that barrel rate has jumped to 20% against lefties in 25 plate appearances.
Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers. He’s surely one of the best pitchers of his generation, but he’s not the pitcher he was a decade ago. Beck should be able to have success against Kershaw and hopefully take him deep.
