The Cubs are sitting pretty with a five-game lead in the NL Central at 41-27, but their recent struggles have exposed a glaring weakness that could derail their playoff hopes.
It’s not the offense that’s been scuffling over the last 10 games. The real problem? Starting pitching.
The Athletic just released their trade deadline Urgency Index, ranking which teams need help in different areas by July 31. Chicago landed at No. 1 for starting pitcher need.
That’s not exactly where you want to be when you’re trying to hold onto a division lead.
“It’s not just that the Cubs’ rotation has been mediocre this far into the season – their starters have been below-average whether you use Wins Above Replacement, ERA or strikeout rate to rank them. What’s more worrisome is what their rotation is likely to do going forward.”
Eno Sarris broke it down further, pointing to FanGraphs projections that rank Chicago’s rotation 23rd even with 81 more innings penciled in for Shota Imanaga. With the offense starting to click and Kyle Tucker on an expiring deal, the pressure’s mounting on the front office to land an impact arm.
The Cubs have options when it comes to adding that impact piece. They could go the rental route with guys like:
• Zac Gallen
• Andrew Heaney
• Tomoyuki Sugano
Or they could target someone with multiple years of control remaining.
That’s where the Miami Marlins come into play. They’ve got two quality arms that could be shopped – Edward Cabrera and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara’s been heavily linked to the Cubs, though Cabrera seems less likely to be moved.
With 49 days until the trade deadline, there’s still plenty of time for more sellers to emerge and additional assets to become available. But for a Cubs team that’s gotten this far despite below-average starting pitching, addressing the rotation might be the difference between a division title and watching October from home.
The offense is starting to gel, and they’ve got a cushion in the standings. Now it’s about whether they can fix the one thing that could sink their season.
