The Chicago Cubs made waves this offseason by finally landing Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million deal. It’s a signing that’s got ESPN’s projections jumping and puts the Cubs squarely in the NL Central driver’s seat.
This wasn’t Bregman’s first rodeo with Chicago. The Cubs have been circling the former Astros third baseman for two seasons, making their pitches but coming up empty each time.
Not this time.
The signing comes off a 92-70 season that saw the Cubs finish second in the NL Central behind Milwaukee. Still made the Wild Card though, where they knocked out San Diego before the Brewers got their revenge in the NLDS. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong carried much of the load, but it wasn’t quite enough when October rolled around.
Now ESPN’s got the Cubs ranked eighth in their latest projections, one spot above Milwaukee. That’s a pretty significant jump for a team that was looking up at the Brewers just a few months ago.
“The signing of Bregman has turbocharged a Cubs offseason that really picked up momentum over the past week. Because the preliminary version of this Stock Watch included numbers run before the Bregman deal, I can report this: Chicago’s outlook jumped by 1.3 wins in the simulations, their playoff odds went up nearly 6% and the title odds went up 1.1%. With the improvement, Chicago leapfrogged the Brewers as the current, way-too-early favorites in the NL Central.”
Those numbers tell the story. A 1.3-win improvement in projections might not sound like much, but it’s the difference between watching October from home and playing meaningful games. The 6% bump in playoff odds puts real meat on the bone.
What makes this signing particularly interesting is the timing. The Cubs have been aggressive this winter, clearly not content to let another season slip by while they’re still in Tucker’s prime. Bregman gives them a proven bat who’s been there before – three All-Star appearances and a World Series ring don’t hurt when you’re trying to get over the hump.
From where I’m sitting, leapfrogging Milwaukee as the early NL Central favorites feels about right. The Brewers had their number last year, but adding a player of Bregman’s caliber changes the conversation entirely.
The Cubs seem to be betting that this is their window, and honestly, it’s hard to argue with the logic.
