The St. Louis Cardinals are putting together quite the season. Nobody expected much from them coming into 2026 – certainly not playoff contention in what was supposed to be the first year of a rebuild.
Instead, they’re 29-23, battling for the NL Central lead and looking every bit like a postseason team. Sure, Jordan Walker’s breakout has been huge. But the real story? Rookie JJ Wetherholt is putting together one hell of a debut season.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle took notice, naming the 23-year-old the clear front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year. That’s not just based on the eye test – the numbers back it up in a big way.
“Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (129.7 AXE). Wetherholt has hit for power, added value on the bases, posted outstanding defensive numbers, and ranks seventh among NL hitters in win probability added. He is every bit as good as we were told he would be.”
The AXE metric Doolittle references combines WAR, win probability added, and other key stats. Wetherholt’s 129.7 AXE puts him well ahead of the competition.
How far ahead? Try this on for size:
- Sal Stewart (Reds): 110.9 AXE
- Konnor Griffin (Pirates): 110.7 AXE
That’s an 18-to-19 point gap, which is significant enough to make Wetherholt the clear favorite. Both Stewart and Griffin will keep pushing, but Wetherholt’s already creating separation.
The production speaks for itself. In just 51 games, Wetherholt’s posted:
- 2.7 bWAR
- 47 hits, 36 runs scored
- 9 homers, 25 RBIs
- 6 stolen bases
- .239/.760 OPS with solid defense
- 28 walks against 43 strikeouts
What makes this even more impressive is the context. The Cardinals weren’t supposed to be competitive this year, let alone have a rookie performing at this level while they fight for a division title.
The way I see it, Wetherholt’s doing exactly what the organization hoped when they drafted him. He’s contributing immediately while showing the kind of all-around game that suggests there’s still more room to grow.
That combination – immediate impact plus future upside – is why the Cardinals’ rebuild might not take as long as anyone expected. And why Wetherholt’s rookie campaign is shaping up to be one of the better debut seasons we’ll see this year.
