The Braves’ biggest offseason move might come with some risk. After signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42 million contract following his All-Star campaign, there’s reason to wonder if they’ll get their money’s worth.
Profar finally delivered on his prospect pedigree in 2024, crushing 24 home runs with an .839 OPS on his way to his first Silver Slugger award. But there’s more to the story than just the headline numbers.
Let’s look at the track record. Before last season’s breakout, Profar was a .238/.322/.383 hitter across 10 big league seasons. That’s what makes Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter skeptical about what’s coming next.
“Profar was a 3-WAR player in 2022 with the Padres, then he joined the Rockies in free agency and promptly forgot how to hit, posting a 77 OPS+ and minus-1.7 WAR in 111 games before he was released,” Reuter writes. “His batted-ball data was encouraging last season, including a career-high 44.4 percent hard-hit rate, but he already showed some signs of regression last year with a .243 average and a 76-point dip in his OPS after the All-Star break.”
That second-half slide is worth noting. While Profar’s overall numbers were impressive, his .243 batting average after the All-Star break suggests pitchers might have started figuring him out.
The Braves are betting on Profar’s breakout being legitimate. There’s certainly some evidence to support that – his hard-hit rate shows he was squaring up the ball better than ever. But after taking 11 years to live up to his top prospect billing, it’s fair to wonder if 2024 was more outlier than new normal.
Even if Profar can’t fully replicate last season’s success, a partial regression might still give Atlanta a solid contributor. The question is whether that’s worth $14 million per year.
