The Blue Jays are taking a “massive gamble” with their Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract strategy, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.
Guerrero, Toronto’s four-time All-Star first baseman, is entering his final year of team control without an extension in place. While he set a spring training deadline for negotiations that has now passed, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro has repeatedly insisted the team will extend their franchise cornerstone.
But Olney isn’t convinced Toronto’s approach makes sense.
“This seems like a gamble that the market will inform VGJ that his contract ask is too rich — that no other team will pay him what the Jays are offering,” Olney wrote on X. “Which is possible. But given the Jays’ willingness to pay VGJ significant money, with a relatively small gap of $50 million (over a long-term deal) between the two sides, is potentially losing the face of the franchise worth that?”
That’s where things get tricky for Toronto. The Blue Jays historically struggle to attract top free agents, making homegrown stars like Guerrero even more valuable. Letting him test the open market creates substantial risk.
“What if another team is willing to go that high, or come close? And will the impasse change VGJ’s perspective on staying in Toronto?” Olney continued. “There is a significant value for the Jays, a team that struggles to lure plays to Toronto, to have a take-down number on a star player. There is a huge risk that this approach is penny-wise and pound-foolish.”
The 25-year-old Guerrero is coming off another stellar season, hitting .323 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs in 2024. He’s also added two Silver Slugger Awards to his trophy case during his Toronto tenure.
Reports indicated the sides were close to an extension before Guerrero’s deadline passed. Now, the question becomes whether Toronto will ultimately cave and meet their star’s asking price before he potentially walks away next winter.
