It’s a light slate of MLB action on Thursday, with just five games on deck. That means fewer options in the player props market, but we’ve still found two bets worth targeting.
While yesterday we found success backing proven players, today we’re pivoting to unders. The beauty of betting an under is having multiple paths to victory – the player might underperform, get pulled early from a start, or be replaced in the lineup midway through the game.
Walker’s Strikeout Struggles
Our first play is under 4.5 strikeouts for Phillies’ Taijuan Walker at -124 odds. At first glance, this looks like a dream matchup against a Rockies team that projects as one of the NL’s worst. But Walker’s numbers tell a different story.
The 2024 campaign was a disaster for the 32-year-old righty. He posted a career-worst 7.10 ERA while opponents slashed .317/.386/.589 against him – among the worst marks for qualified starters. Walker was eventually demoted to the bullpen and is only back in the rotation for now.
His spring numbers don’t inspire confidence either. Walker posted a 7.41 ERA with just 8 strikeouts over 17 innings. He’s seen his strikeout rate decline for seven straight seasons, along with his velocity.
The matchup isn’t as favorable as it seems, either. Current Rockies hitters are batting .400 against Walker over 35 at-bats with just a 17% strikeout rate. That’s well below what we’d need to clear this number.
Goldschmidt’s Slow Start
Our second play is under 1.5 total bases for Yankees’ Paul Goldschmidt at -155 odds. The former NL MVP is facing his former team and is 0-for-8 over the last two days against the Diamondbacks. He’s struck out in three of those eight at-bats and has recorded hits in only two of five starts this season.
He’ll be facing D-Backs ace Merrill Kelly for most of Thursday’s contest – a pitcher he’s had little success against. Goldschmidt is just 2-for-12 lifetime against Kelly with three strikeouts. Neither hit went for extra bases, and Goldschmidt has managed just two extra-base hits all season.
Kelly looks like one of the few pitchers capable of neutralizing the Bronx Bombers. He’s coming off a three-hit, one-run performance against the Cubs and has historically dominated Yankees hitters.
Current New York batters are slashing a measly .180/.240/.348 against Kelly across 89 at-bats. They’ve combined for only seven extra-base hits while striking out at a 27% rate. Expect Goldschmidt’s early season struggles to continue in what should be a lower-scoring affair than many expect.
