The Houston Astros won’t be picking first in the 2026 MLB Draft despite their rough season giving them better lottery odds than they’ve seen in years.
Houston entered the lottery with just a 0.34% chance at the top pick, which didn’t pan out. The Chicago White Sox landed the first overall selection with 27.35% odds.
That leaves the Astros with the 17th overall pick. Not exactly what they were hoping for, but there’s still plenty of talent to work with in that range.
Mock drafts are more art than science at this point – these rankings can shift pretty quickly based on how prospects perform this spring. But Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter thinks California prep lefty Logan Schmidt could be available when Houston’s on the clock.
“A strong summer showcase circuit vaulted Schmidt into the top tier of prep left-handers, alongside Gio Rojas and Carson Bolemon, and he now fits comfortably into the middle of the first round. With 6’4″, 215-pound frame, good command of his three-pitch arsenal and clean mechanics, he offers a nice mix of upside and polish, and he will be just 17 on draft after reclassifying.”
Schmidt really caught scouts’ attention last summer when his velocity jumped during the Area Code Games. That’s what launched him into first-round consideration.
What makes this different is Schmidt’s command – he’s got solid control of all three pitches already. At just 17, there’s plenty of room for development once he gets into Houston’s system.
The Astros know how to develop pitching talent, and Schmidt’s combination of size, stuff, and polish could be exactly what they’re looking for. Sometimes the best picks aren’t at the top of the draft anyway.
