The Houston Astros are hunting for more than just a left-handed bat this trade deadline. Sure, they need upgrades at left field and second base, but there’s another glaring hole that’s flying under the radar.
Their starting rotation.
With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown locked in at the top, the Astros don’t need an ace. What they desperately need is a reliable third starter who can handle October pressure. When you’re looking at best-of-three and best-of-five series, you can’t afford to go thin on starting pitching.
Chandler Rome of The Athletic thinks GM Dana Brown knows exactly what he needs to do. Rome’s prediction? The Astros will make a run at Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly.
“Now, the Astros again need a third starter behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. They may not have enough prospects’ capital to land Merrill Kelly – a Houston native in the final year of his contract – but if owner Jim Crane covets a splashy name while contemplating whether to cross into the luxury tax, Kelly fits the bill.”
The situation behind Valdez and Brown isn’t pretty. You’ve got young arms still finding their way, injured pitchers trying to work back into form like Lance McCullers Jr., and others still rehabbing including Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Arrighetti.
That’s where Kelly makes sense.
The 36-year-old veteran right-hander has been steady for Arizona this season. He’s posted a 3.34 ERA across 20 starts with an 8-5 record and 2.9 WAR. His ERA+ of 127 ranks as the third-best mark of his seven-year career.
Kelly’s control has been sharp too. In 116 innings, he’s struck out 113 batters against just 33 walks. He’s given up 13 home runs and maintains a 1.052 WHIP.
As a rental, Kelly wouldn’t command the same prospect haul as some of the premium arms on the market. But he’s not going to come cheap either, especially with Houston’s farm system ranking among the weaker ones in baseball. The Diamondbacks would likely demand some of their better prospects.
The question is whether Arizona’s even selling, and if the Astros are willing to pay the price.
But here’s what makes Kelly intriguing beyond the regular season numbers. He’s got October experience that matters. During Arizona’s World Series run in 2023, Kelly posted a 2.25 postseason ERA across four starts.
That’s the kind of veteran presence Houston needs in their rotation.
If Rome’s prediction comes to fruition, the Astros would suddenly have a formidable top three that could carry them deep into October. Valdez’s postseason track record speaks for itself, Brown’s taken a big step forward this season, and Kelly would bring that steady veteran hand they’re missing.
It’s the kind of move that could define Houston’s championship hopes.
