Astros Get Bad Prediction on Framber Valdez Contract Price

Astros Get Bad Prediction on Framber Valdez Contract Price image

Framber Valdez has quietly put together another stellar season for the Houston Astros, and it’s shaping up to cost them big time this winter.

The left-hander’s posted a 2.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts this season, numbers that scream ace-level production. For an Astros front office that’s been notably tight with the checkbook lately, that’s becoming a problem.

What makes this different is the market around Valdez. While other starting pitchers will cash in this offseason, many around the game believe he could land the biggest contract among starters available.

That’s saying something when you look at the other names out there.

The Athletic’s Andy McCullough recently highlighted what separates Valdez from the pack, noting his consistency over nearly five years of elite production.

“Unlike Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Michael King, Valdez has put together an excellent platform season, setting himself up to land the biggest free-agent contract this winter. He has a 2.97 ERA and his 2.96 FIP is his best in a full season. He has been basically the same guy for half a decade: His sinker generates a lot of grounders, he doesn’t give up many home runs and he strikes out about a batter per inning.”

McCullough also pointed out Valdez’s approach works despite some hard contact: “He does give up a good deal of hard contact, but since most of it is on the ground, you can live with that. He’ll get paid this winter.”

The way I see it, Houston’s facing a familiar crossroads here. They’ve watched impact players walk in recent years, and now they’re staring at the same scenario with an ace-caliber arm who’s been rock-solid for half a decade.

Valdez isn’t just putting up good numbers – he’s doing it with a style that ages well. That sinker-heavy approach that generates ground balls and limits home runs? That’s the kind of pitcher contending teams pay premium prices for.

All things considered, the Astros can’t afford to keep letting talent like this walk out the door. But given their recent spending patterns, it’s hard to see them matching what Valdez will command on the open market.

That leaves Houston with some tough decisions ahead, especially if they want to stay competitive in what’s become an increasingly tough AL West.

Luke Bennett avatar
Luke Bennett
2 months ago