Five MLB Surprise Teams: Who’s For Real and Who’s Not?
The MLB season has given us several unexpected storylines, with five teams defying preseason expectations. But which hot starts are sustainable and which are mirages?
ESPN’s David Schoenfield broke down these surprise contenders, analyzing whether they’re built to last. Let’s dive into each team’s situation.
Detroit Tigers: The Real Deal
At 31-17, the Tigers aren’t just leading the AL Central—they’re dominating it. They’ve built a four-and-a-half game cushion over both Minnesota and Kansas City, and it’s no fluke.
What makes this Tigers team special is their historic pace. They’re on track for 107 wins, which would surpass their legendary 1984 World Series team’s 104 victories. Spencer Torkelson has finally found his power stroke, Casey Mize looks like the ace they drafted him to be, and Javier Báez has somehow rediscovered his All-Star form.
The Tigers aren’t just for real—they should win the AL Central with room to spare.
St. Louis Cardinals: Smoke and Mirrors
The Cardinals have been baseball’s hottest team since May began, climbing to second place in the NL Central, just a game back of the lead. Brendan Donovan has been a revelation, slashing .330/.387/.466 and making a case as MLB’s best-hitting second baseman.
But there’s a problem lurking beneath the surface. The pitching staff ranks eighth in rotation ERA but isn’t missing bats—a dangerous combination that typically doesn’t hold up over 162 games.
Sonny Gray has been excellent and Matthew Liberatore shows promise, but this staff doesn’t have the firepower to sustain their success. Even with the Cubs dealing with their own issues, St. Louis isn’t built to last.
San Francisco Giants: Conditionally Real
The Giants have quietly built a 28-20 record in baseball’s toughest division. Their bullpen has been lights-out, and Wilmer Flores leads all MLB hitters in RBI—exactly as everyone predicted, right?
Logan Webb has returned to All-Star form, but the rotation behind him raises questions. The offense has been productive despite key players underperforming.
Here’s where it gets interesting: if Willy Adames can snap out of his early-season funk and produce like the player they traded for, the Giants have the pieces to be legitimate contenders. Their fate hinges on whether their big acquisition can deliver.
Cleveland Guardians: Trending Downward
The Guardians sit five games out in the AL Central, but that gap feels wider with each passing series. Their starting rotation has been a liability, and even their typically reliable bullpen has shown cracks. Outside of Hunter Gaddis, the relief corps—including normally dominant closer Emmanuel Clase—has been shaky at best.
José Ramírez remains one of baseball’s elite players, and Steven Kwan is a hitting machine, but two stars can’t carry an entire team. The Guardians’ early success was a mirage—they’re not built to contend this season.
Oakland Athletics: Building for Tomorrow
After a surprisingly hot start, the A’s have fallen to 22-26. Their pitching and hitting both rank near the bottom of the league, but there are bright spots for the future.
Rookie Jacob Wilson is raking with a .337/.369/.478 slash line, while Tyler Soderstrom has already launched 10 homers. If they hold onto flamethrower Mason Miller, Oakland’s future looks promising—but that future isn’t 2024.
The AL West lacks a dominant team, which has allowed the A’s to hang around, but don’t be fooled. They’re still rebuilding, not contending.
