The Miami Marlins might be keeping Edward Cabrera after all. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, both the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles have backed out of trade talks for the right-hander who was considered one of the winter’s most available starters.
It’s not that teams soured on Cabrera. It’s that the starting pitching market moved faster than anyone expected.
The Domino Effect
Baltimore was chasing nearly every quality starter available this offseason, whether through free agency or trades. Cabrera fit exactly what they were looking for – young, controllable, with plenty of upside. But the Orioles pulled the trigger on Shane Baz instead, sending multiple prospects and a draft pick to Tampa Bay last week.
That deal ate up Baltimore’s prospect capital in a hurry. Going after another high-end starter like Cabrera became unrealistic once they committed to Baz.
Houston’s story follows a similar pattern. The Astros entered the winter with their rotation in shambles after a brutal 2025 injury run. Tommy John surgeries for Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter, plus another elbow setback for Luis Garcia, left them scrambling for arms. With Framber Valdez heading toward free agency, they needed controllable talent.
Houston found their answer in Mike Burrows, acquiring the right-hander as part of a three-team deal centered around Brandon Lowe. But it cost them. Jacob Melton, one of their top prospects, and right-hander Anderson Brito went to Tampa Bay. For an organization that’s traded heavily in recent years, giving up that level of talent probably closed the door on assembling another premium package.
Miami’s Patient Approach
The Marlins, meanwhile, have little reason to rush. Cabrera finally put together his most complete season in 2025 after years of flashes interrupted by injuries. He posted a 3.53 ERA across a career-high 137⅔ innings while maintaining a 25.8% strikeout rate and trimming his walk rate into single digits for the first time.
A brief return from a September elbow sprain in the season’s final week helped ease health concerns heading into 2026. That’s crucial context for a pitcher who’s dealt with durability questions throughout his career.
Cabrera remains under team control through 2028 and projects to earn around $3.7 million in arbitration. Miami’s made it clear they won’t sell short, and with two aggressive suitors having already spent their prospect capital elsewhere, patience looks like the right play.
The way I see it, this market shift might actually work in Miami’s favor. Teams that missed out on the early moves could get more desperate as spring training approaches. And with Cabrera coming off his best season, the Marlins hold a pretty strong hand.
All things considered, what started as one of the winter’s most likely trades might not happen at all. Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make.
